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10 Key Constituencies The NPP Must Win In 2020 Elections If They Wish To Retain Power.

All too soon Ghana is at the crossroads of destiny again as the two main political parties gear up to battle it out for the right to rule Ghana. Under the heat and pressure of the moment, each political party is looking forward for the political ‘ think tanks’ to churn out political strategy and analysis that has the potential to maximize the chance of winning power. This write up is thus, an attempt to draw some useful analysis from the previous elections to make some predictions. 

The New Patriotic Party , despite having the chance to rule for the past 4 year is looking forward to retain power to increase their tenure by one more term. 

Nana Akuffo Addo political slogan this year, “4More4Nana” tends to preach clearly his intentions to win this elections. 

It would thus not be far fetched for an analysis to be done in order to predict his chances of winning based on the results of the 2016 elections. 

From the 2016 elections, it became apparent that to win power is based on strategy and not just populist politics. 

It is notable that aside winning stronghold regions and key swing regions, there are very key constituencies to win in order to have the overall electoral victory. 

But , what are these constituencies and what do they represent? 

Under the 1992 constitution of Ghana and the practice of multi party democracy, elections is an indispensable part and an important exercise that ensures that the wheels of power turns to drive the nation forward. The famed Abraham Lincoln once said, democracy is “government...by the people “.

It is a known fact that the people of a nation are the peak height of power whenever elections draw nigh. The power of the people is manifest in what is called the constituency. 

A constituency is the representation of all the eligible ones that have a form of invested power to elect candidates into public offices within a specific area or boundary. 

In the Ghanaian context, to be eligible means to be a registered voter.

Now the 2016 elections in the political history in Ghana was one of the most eventful elections ever to have been held. 

It saw the first defeat of a sitting president in an election with John Dramani Mahama making that history possible when the National Democratic Congress lost power to the governing New Patriotic Party by close to a million votes. It was the largest defeat by margin as well in the history of the 4th republican politics. 

Aside these , it also provide excellent fodder for any political party to reassess and align itself if it wants to taste victory in any future electoral process. 

Based on the 2016 elections, Nana Akuffo Addo won 153 constituencies out of the total 275 after results of 273 constituencies were declared. The total votes cast in his favor was a whopping 5,697,093 representing 53.8% of total votes cast. 

John Mahama came in second place with 4,701,162 representing 44.4%. This translates to mean the NPP won about 33 more constituencies than the NDC’s 120 seats won. 

This is why ‘constituency politics’ must not be overlooked if one wishes to have electoral victory . 

Now there were 10 key constituencies that the NDC won with very close margins. Interestingly, these constituencies lie deep in perceived strongholds of the NDC, aside a few that swing between regions that usually ‘switch’ allegiances based on current events and preferences in government and politics.

Inferentially, given that the NPP retain much of the constituency results in the 2016 elections , winning these additional 10 key constituencies from the opposition party will deal the death blow to any flicker of chance they might have at power. 

These constituencies are listed below. 


Zabzugu constituency

This constituency lies within the Northern Region of Ghana. In the 2016 elections, the NDC won this seat with 49.8% with the NPP coming in hot at 49.7%, representing just 24 votes difference.

With the Northern region being perceived as a stronghold of the NDC( to a larger extent), it is imperative that if the NPP hopes to retain power, then work and effort must be directed in this area to maximize their chances and close any votes gaps. 


New Edubiase

When one thought the Ashanti region for the NPP is a given, there are strong showing of divergence from tradition within some constituencies as the NPP lost this seat right within their supposed ‘world bank’ by garnering 49.2% of the votes in the 2016 elections .

The NDC candidate won this seat with 49.4% of votes cast to win with 50 votes difference. This must also an area of concern for the NPP if they wish to achieve 100% victory in Ashanti region. 


Banda Constituency 

Banda lies within the former Brong Ahafo region. The NDC candidate won with 50% of votes cast whiles the NPP lost by 49.2%. The difference in the vote count was 51.

If the NPP closes this gap this year, it may increase its number of seats in parliament and improve its chances of maintaining power. 


Asunafo South

It’s also located in the former Brong Ahafo region and after the results declaration this was observed.

NDC- 49.9%

NPP-49.5%

Difference-42 votes


Tain constituency 

This constituency achieved a short lived popularity in 2008. It became the last constituency to have its results declared which eventually saw the crowning of Prof. John Atta Mills as the president elect during the presidential run off of the 2008 elections. 

Sadly , history could not repeat itself in 2016 even though the NDC maintain its seat with 45.7% of votes as against 45.5% of the NPP. The votes difference was 41. 


Suaman/Aowin

This lies within the Western region (now part of the western north region)

After the results were declared, NDC had won with 48% with NPP coming in second with 47.7. The margin was just 12 votes. If the NPP pushes hard enough this year and close the gap, it could maximize its overall chance of maintaining power by having additional seats won. It’s just simple. 


Pru West

This lies within the Brong Ahafo region . The results of the 2016 were as follows: 

NDC-49.7

NPP-49.6 

Margin-42. 

This like the other closely contested seats could be an NPP seat if they so wish to win.


Krachi East

This constituency lies in the Volta region, a very faithful region as far as the NDC is concerned. To win a non NDC seat in the Volta region will require hard work and strategy. Recently, they have shown some signs of departure from the traditional voting patterns but the NDC still remain the darling of the Volta.

However , Krachi East remains a closely contested seat based on the 2016 data. NDC won with just 47 votes difference with 49.7% against 49.6% for the NPP. 


Salaga South

And lastly, Salaga South constituency which is in the Savannah Region(formerly part of the Northern region). The NDC won this seat with 39.9% of votes against the NPP’s 39.7 with a margin of 47 votes.

If the NPP wishes to increase their tally of constituency victory of seats in parliament which converts to a victory in the general elections as the 2016, a cursory look at this constituencies provide excellent data for political strategy and planning. 

This year’s elections is poised to become more interesting than the 2016, and we will be here to count the spoils and keep observing. May Ghana win in the end.

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