Ghana's Political Landscape has been dominated mainly by the two major political parties the NDC and the NPP.
With each of them touting themselves as agents of development, Ghanaians do not take chances in making changes whenever they feel like. Constitutionally every four years. Former President John Dramani Mahama has proven himself a tough candidate with a come back to occupy the Presidency again. Something majority of NDC members are happy with but have a long way to cry for the next 14 years. Below are my observations backing my assertion that Former President John Dramani Mahama can never lead Ghana again as President.
Ghanaians Trend Of Voting :
Traditionally no political party in Ghana has tasted power for more than four years under our Democratic Constitutional rule. From 1992 when we had our first elections till now, the two dominating parties have changed batons every eight years.
1992 Elections - NDC - J.J Rawlings
1996 Elections - NDC - JJ Rawlings
2000 Elections - NPP - J.A Kuffuor
2004 Elections - NPP - J.A Kufuor
2008 Elections - NDC - J.E.A Mills
2012 Elections - NDC - J.D Mahama
2016 Elections - NPP - Nana Akuffo Addo
Presidents Under Ghana's 4th Republic
Going by this trend of voting, laced with some run-off in some instances, you won't need a world acclaimed Prophet to tell you that the NPP led by Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo Addo is winning the 2020 election
Considering the remarkable performance in his first term under Education ( Free SHS), Water ( One Village One Dam), Agriculture (Planting for Food and Jobs) Infrastructure ( Building of new school blocks to scrap double track) and more. His proper measures taken against the deadly COVID 19 pandemic is a bonus for him.
Giving out free power, free water and Beefing local industries in production of personal protective Equipment. Majority of Ghanaians believes that the colors of a political party (government) becomes ripe every eight years. Its however clear as to why President John Dramani Mahama couldn't win the 2016 elections in a government he deputised as Vice President and subsequent President succeeding his boss the Late John Evans Atta Mills.
Why? He couldn't perform up to expectation. Corruption a general enemy in almost every government is measured by how it is been managed. This former President Mahama cared little about. A typical example that took center stage was how a Minister under his government after misapplying funds, made a flimsy excuse that the outcome of a government funded project ( Rearing of Guinea Fowls in Northern Ghana) is nowhere to be found because the animals have all allegedly flew to nearby Burkina Faso.
The Former President who has staged a come back will have a tough time to redeem his reputation in regards to those scandals to warrant the vote of Ghanaians. The distablised Peace in the current NDC, laced with Grudges and suspensions is a cause for worry into defeat. Its however unclear if the NDC may decide to bring him in 2024 considering his chances after losing series of elections.
Why Is NDC Likely to Loose Election 2020,2024,2028 And Possibly Win in 2032 Easily ?
Marketing a new face in the Ghanaian political space have also carved a trend for itself. Let's forget of 1992 Elections which was boycotted by the NPP. Because it was more or less perpetuating your own crimes, reporting yourself and sentencing yourself in your own Court.
To me real contest was seen in 1996. This trend has seen no candidate win an election in his first appearance in contest. Let me quickly add that what occurred to John Mahama as a win in 2012 was borne out of sympathy for losing his boss but not his competence. His real test to me was in 2016 when Ghanaians have had a proper scrutiny of his actions and hence dumped him.
John Kufuor's First Appearance in 1996 saw him lost to Jerry John Rawlings but won in 2000 beating Ata Mills a new face.
Ata Mills third appearance in 2008 saw him win when he defeated Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo Addo another new face.
Not finishing his Ghanaian traditionally accepted eight years ( Unconstitutional Assertion), he passed on to glory as his vice John Dramani Mahama a new face succeeded him in 2012 . Finishing their eight years.
In 2016, John Dramani Mahama a new face ( yes a new face because he and the NDC claimed that was his real constitutionally accepted commencement of his Presidential ambition.) was beaten by a historically inked margin of over One million votes difference by Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo Addo.
Not satisfied, he has staged a come back in this year 2020 which is an outright lost per how the current President has performed.
After losing 2020, Its likely the NDC will present a new face in 2024 whose win is unlikely because its likely the NPP will present Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia who will win hands down Considering his influence in the Northern Region which saw the NPP move from 3 parliamentary seats in 2012 to 13 seats in 2016.
He managed to snatch 10 NDC occupied seats for the NPP through campaigning in the North. Even when he was a vice Presidential candidate. What do you think is likely to happen when he becomes the main Presidential candidate? Your guess is as good as mine.
That moves us to Election 2028 which Bawumia, if elected is likely to win to complete his eight years rule. A new face from the NPP in election 2032 will find it difficult to beat the then known marketed serial loser of the NDC candidate losing 2024 and 2028 already. That is when the NDC can capture power.
This is not Science or Conjured assertions. Its a practically proven based research.
Centered on the trend of how Ghanaians vote, the trend of Change of power in Ghana and Marketing of Presidential candidates in our political history.
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