First things first
Before you can predict the score, you have to make a couple of additional steps. First of all, we have to find out the average number of goals each team scores. For that, we would need the «Attack Strength» and «Defence Strength» data.
This data plays an essential role in our calculations. If our data range would be too long, the results won’t be satisfying, and if too short, it could happen that some data would be beyond our designated rage. You always can get this data from the seasonal statistics of any football league/competition.
To calculate this part, we would need to find the average of home and away goals scored by each team.
This is very easy to do. You just have to divide the total amount of goals by the number of games played.
Season total goals scored at home / number of games (in season)
Season total goals scored away / number of games (in season)
For the example purposes, let’s use the 2015/2016 English Premier League data. By putting all the necessary information into the simple formula, we would get:
Average number of goals scored at home: 1.492
Average number of goals scored away: 1.207
Attack Strength is the ration between the league’s and the team’s averages.
Good news, you don’t have to do much more calculations here, as they have already been done. All you need to do it reverse the previous results because the goals a home team scores are conceded by the away team and vice versa. Therefore, our results will look the following way:
Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.207
Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.492
Once again, the Defence Strength is the ratio between the league’s and the team’s averages.
Once you gathered all the above information, you can try to predict the goals. Just apply these formulas following these easy steps:
Step 1 - You have to take the total home goals scored by a team and divide it by the total number of home games.
Step 2 - Divide the answer you get by the league’s average home goals divided by the total home games.
Team’s home goals - THG
Team’s home matches - THM
League’s home goals - LHG
League’s home matches - LHM
(THG/THM) / (LHG/LHM) = Attack Strength
Step 3 - You have to take the total goals conceded by a team while away and divide it by the total number of away games.
Step 4 - Divide the answer you get by the league’s average goals conceded while away divided by the total away games.
Team’s conceded goals - TCG
Team’s away matches - TAM
League’s conceded goals - LCG
League’s away matches - LAM
(TCG/TAM) / (LCG/LAM) = Defense Strength
Step 4 - Now, all you left to do is to calculate the possible number of goals. To do so, just multiply the home team’s Attack Strength by the away team’s Defense Strength and by the league’s average number of home goals.
Attack Strength - AS
Defense Strength - DS
Home Team - HT
Away Team - AT
HTAS x ATDS x LHG = Possible home team goals
ATAS x HTDS x LHG = Possible away team goals
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